Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
16 min read
Featured Articles
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes many of the individual tax cuts and reforms of the TCJA permanent. It improves upon the TCJA by making expensing for R&D and equipment permanent. However, for the most part, it does not include further structural reforms, and instead introduces many new, narrow tax breaks to the code, adding complexity and raising revenue costs.
7 min read
The One Big Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s In It, What’s Out
Congress is racing to pass the One Big Beautiful Tax Bill before the July 4 deadline. In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what just happened over the weekend, what’s actually in the bill, and what comes next as the House and Senate try to reconcile their differences.
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
House Tax Package Could Double Economic Growth Impact by Prioritizing Permanence for TCJA Business Provisions
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
2 min read
A More Generous SALT Deduction Cap in the Big, Beautiful Bill Would Cost Revenue and Primarily Benefit High Earners
Letting the SALT cap slip further upwards would undercut the TCJA’s long-term legacy, worsening the fiscal outlook of the tax package and providing an unneeded benefit to higher earners.
4 min read
House GOP’s Approach to the IRA Clean Energy Tax Credits: Five Things to Know
Tax simplification has two aspects. The first is a code without a mess of targeted provisions for various social policy goals. The second is a code with provisions that are simple and easy to comply with. The bill succeeds at the first, but fails at the second.
7 min read
What Are the Goals of Retaliatory Tax Policies?
The US Ways and Means Committee’s “Big Beautiful Bill” includes a retaliatory provision called Section 899, along with an expansion of the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT).
7 min read
The One Big Beautiful Bill, Explained
We break down the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill—a sweeping tax package designed to extend key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026.
House “One Big Beautiful Bill” Riddled with Temporary Tax Policy
As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
4 min readAll Related Articles
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes many of the individual tax cuts and reforms of the TCJA permanent. It improves upon the TCJA by making expensing for R&D and equipment permanent. However, for the most part, it does not include further structural reforms, and instead introduces many new, narrow tax breaks to the code, adding complexity and raising revenue costs.
7 min read
State Implications of the GILTI to NCTI Conversion
The One Big Beautiful Bill’s changes to the taxation of international income have surprising implications for state codes, yielding tax increases and a revised tax base that, through quirks of state incorporation, bears very little resemblance to the federal base and almost nothing of its purpose.
10 min read
Digital Services Taxes State of Play
Policymakers continue to debate international tax rules after the US gained agreement on a new approach at the G7 that could result in US anti-avoidance policies existing side-by-side with the global minimum tax.
4 min read
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
16 min read
How Does the Additional Senior Deduction Compare to No Tax on Social Security?
The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.
3 min read
A Partial Defense of the QBAI Exclusion
Lawmakers should consider maintaining QBAI and applying the several billion dollars from the Senate’s change toward other pro-growth international tax reforms instead.
6 min read
The One Big Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s In It, What’s Out
Congress is racing to pass the One Big Beautiful Tax Bill before the July 4 deadline. In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what just happened over the weekend, what’s actually in the bill, and what comes next as the House and Senate try to reconcile their differences.
Will the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher Growth?
Lawmakers are right to be concerned about deficits and economic growth. The best path to address those concerns is to ensure OBBB provides permanent full expensing of capital investment, avoids inefficient tax cuts, and offsets remaining revenue losses by closing tax loopholes and reducing spending.
8 min read
The Senate Finance Committee’s New International Tax Package: A First Look
The Senate draft overall makes more changes to international tax policy than the House draft. On net the changes are positive.
8 min read
Senate Softens Blow for Pass-Throughs Using Current SALT Workarounds
The Senate’s version of the OBBB restores the benefit of avoiding the SALT deduction cap with PTETs for all pass-through businesses, while placing new limits on the extent of the workarounds.
6 min read
Breaking Down the Senior Deduction in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
The House-passed reconciliation bill leaves out Trump’s promise to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, opting instead to expand the standard deduction for seniors.
The CREATE JOBS Act: A Pro-Growth and Fiscally Responsible Tax Proposal
Senator Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) CREATE JOBS Act prioritizes permanence for the most cost-effective tax reforms—expensing and Neutral Cost Recovery (NCRS)—to boost growth in a relatively fiscally responsible way.
4 min read
‘Trump Accounts’ Could Be Better. Here’s How.
If the federal government really wanted to make saving more accessible for taxpayers, it would swap the proposal for Trump Accounts to replace the complicated mess of savings accounts currently available with universal savings accounts.
4 min read
How the IRA Provisions (and Scores) Have Changed
The final House bill makes impressive cuts to the IRA green energy tax credits, but it does so in part by introducing more complexity.
5 min read
Trump’s Policies Deal a Double Blow to Tax-Cutting States
President’s Trump’s policies would throw high-tax states a life raft as they swim against the tide—before potentially hitting all states with a tariff-induced economic tsunami that could force lawmakers’ hands and reverse recent tax relief.
How Does the House-Passed Tax Bill Change the Section 199A Pass-Through Deduction?
Rather than permanently expanding a complicated, nonneutral tax break, Congress should prioritize permanence for the most neutral and pro-growth policies like bonus depreciation and R&D expensing.
6 min read
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
The Remittances Tax: High Paperwork, Low Payoff
The House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes a new 3.5 percent tax on remittances, or non-commercial transfers of money that people in the US send to people abroad.
7 min read
House Tax and Spending Bill Continues Income Tax Carveout for Credit Unions
The House tax and spending bill leaves in place a long-standing provision that exempts credit unions from federal and state income tax, allowing them to compete unfairly with banks and, increasingly, to buy them.
6 min read