The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes many of the individual tax cuts and reforms of the TCJA permanent. It improves upon the TCJA by making expensing for R&D and equipment permanent. However, for the most part, it does not include further structural reforms, and instead introduces many new, narrow tax breaks to the code, adding complexity and raising revenue costs.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill’s changes to the taxation of international income have surprising implications for state codes, yielding tax increases and a revised tax base that, through quirks of state incorporation, bears very little resemblance to the federal base and almost nothing of its purpose.
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The BEPS project’s 15 actions were decisive responses to real problems in cross-border taxation, offering real benefits but also real costs. A decade of implementation experience has revealed a critical side effect: sharply higher compliance costs for both tax administrations and the business community.
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
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Lawmakers should consider maintaining QBAI and applying the several billion dollars from the Senate’s change toward other pro-growth international tax reforms instead.
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The Senate draft overall makes more changes to international tax policy than the House draft. On net the changes are positive.
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If Illinois’ budget is enacted as-is, Illinois will newly tax 50 percent of Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) as of tax year 2025, retroactively increasing tax burdens for US businesses and further hindering Illinois’ business tax competitiveness.
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Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
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Tax legislation in 2025 may have good reason to address international corporate income taxes, because of scheduled changes slated to go into effect or because of international developments like the Pillar Two agreement.
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The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
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The agreement represents a major change for tax competition, and many countries will be rethinking their tax policies for multinationals. If there is no agreement on changes to Pillar Two or digital services taxes, retaliatory American tariffs could be on the horizon.
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The Tax Foundation models tax policy using our proprietary Taxes and Growth model, illustrating the economic, revenue, and distributional impacts of different changes to the federal tax code. We’ve recently implemented improvements to the model that have been underway for the past several years, and we will be detailing them further in our forthcoming model methodology update.
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This week, the incoming Trump administration issued a day-one executive order on the global minimum tax agreement known as Pillar Two, which seeks to ensure multinational corporations pay at least 15 percent in income tax.
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18 of the 27 EU Member States have implemented both the income inclusion rule and the qualified domestic minimum top-up tax in 2024.
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On tax policy, Harris carries forward much of President Biden’s FY 2025 budget, including higher taxes aimed at businesses and high earners. She would also further expand the child tax credit (CTC) and various other tax credits and incentives while exempting tips from income tax.
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States that tax GILTI increase filing complexity, drive up the cost of tax compliance, and introduce unnecessary economic uncertainty and legal risk. 21 states and DC continue to tax GILTI despite these challenges.
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Supernormal profits are an important concept, but we should be wary of analysis that both defines supernormal profits very broadly and equates all supernormal profits with monopoly profits that can be easily taxed without negative economic effects.
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Lawmakers should consider compliance costs—not just tax liabilities—when evaluating reforms to business income taxation.
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Gov. Walz’s tax policy record is notable because of how much it contrasts with broader national trends. In recent years, most governors have championed tax cuts. Walz, rare among his peers, chose tax increases.
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Puerto Rico, a US territory with a limited ability to set its own tax policies, will be the first part of the US to be substantially affected by Pillar Two, the global tax agreement that seeks to establish a 15 percent minimum tax rate on corporate income.
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